贵州省人口老龄化对居民消费水平的影响分析
贵州省人口老龄化对居民消费水平的影响分析(论文15000字)
摘要：在一个国家的社会发展和经济发展中，人口老龄化是必然会出现的一个问题。近年来中国的人口老龄化问题变得越来越来严重，已经出现阻碍消费水平发展的现象，也引起了越来越多的关注。
本文先介绍我国的人口老龄化背景，通过阅读国内外文献后，对人口老龄化与居民消费水平的相关研究进行总结分析，然后分析了贵州省人口现状和人口老龄化特点，并对贵州省未来15年的老龄化发展趋势进行预测。接着分析了贵州省的居民消费水平现状。最后选取相应的人口因素和经济因素变量来进行相关性分析，经过对指标的筛选和检验后建立了VAR模型，并对模型进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解，以此来讨论人口老龄化与居民消费水平的相关关系，得到了贵州省人口老龄化对居民消费水平增长的负向影响。最后，本文提出缓解贵州省人口老龄化进程和促进居民消费水平发展的相关策略，并回顾本篇研究中存在的问题，提出了对未来的期望。
关键词：人口老龄化；居民消费水平；VAR模型
The Influence of Aging Population on Residents’ Consumption Level in Guizhou
Abstract: An aging population is an inevitable problem in a country's social development and economic development.In recent years, the problem of aging population in China is becoming more and more serious, which has attracted more and more attention.
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This paper introduces the present situation of aging population in China.After reading the literature at home and abroad, author summarizes and analyzes the related research on population aging and residents' consumption level.Then it analyzes the current situation of population and the characteristics of population aging in Guizhou province.It predicts the trend of the aging development of Guizhou Province in the next 15 years.Finally, the corresponding population factors and economic factors are selected to carry out the correlation analysis.After the screening and testing of the indexes, a VAR model is established, and the model is analyzed with pulse response analysis and variance decomposition.In order to discuss the correlation between population aging and residents' consumption level. Negative influence on the growth of residents' consumption level is discovered.At last,author puts forward the relevant strategies to alleviate the population aging process and promotes the development of residents' consumption level in Guizhou Province, then reviewing the existing problems in this study, and puting forward the expectation of the future.
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Key words:Aging population;residents’ consumption level;Var model
目 录
1、绪论 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究意义 1
1.3老龄化概念和国内外研究现状 2
1.4研究思路与方法 3
2、贵州省人口现状 4
2.1 贵州省人口现状 4
2.2贵州省人口老龄化特点 5
2.3贵州省老龄化趋势预测分析 8
3、贵州省居民消费水平现状 9
3.1贵州省消费水平现状 9
3.2贵州省居民消费水平相关因素分析 10
4、贵州省人口老龄化和居民消费水平关系的实证分析 12
4.1模型构建 12
4.2对数处理 13
4.2相关性分析 14
4.3平稳性检验 14
4.4协整检验 15
4.5VAR模型建立 15
4.6脉冲响应分析 17 [资料来源：http://Doc163.com]
4.7方差分解 17
5、结论与建议 18
5.1结论 18
5.2政策建议 19
6、不足与展望 20
参考文献 21
致 谢 23 [资料来源：http://Doc163.com]